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    融合物理先验知识与Crossformer神经网络的漂浮式风力机发电功率预测方法

    Power Generation Prediction Method for Floating Wind Turbines Integrating Physical Prior Knowledge and Crossformer Neural Network

    • 摘要: 漂浮式风电机组多用于深远海,支撑平台存在显著低频运动。相较于固定式海上风力机,其风轮入流除受风场作用外,还受平台纵摇、纵荡扰动,发电功率波动剧烈、非线性与多变量耦合特性突出。传统功率曲线无法考量平台运动作用,常规循环神经网络及标准Transformer难以表示变量间关联,纯数据驱动模型在工况稀疏场景易违背物理机理。为此,本文提出融合物理先验与Crossformer神经网络的漂浮式风力机功率预测方法。依托平台纵摇角速度修正风速,还原风轮实际入流;借助分段三次Hermite插值搭建风速-功率理论曲线,将其作为物理约束引入训练;依托Crossformer架构挖掘运行参数与平台姿态的长时序依赖及耦合关系;搭建含双损失函数与动态权重调节的混合训练框架。测试显示,PI-Crossformer一小时多步预测MAPE为3.06%,MAE为73.67 kW,RMSE为135.01 kW,R2达0.9968,兼顾预测精度、物理合理性与多步预测稳定性。

       

      Abstract: Floating wind turbines are deployed in deep seas, whose supporting platforms undergo prominent low-frequency motions. Different from fixed offshore wind turbines, the rotor inflow is disturbed by platform pitch and surge apart from ambient wind speed, leading to intense power fluctuation, strong nonlinearity and multivariate coupling. Traditional power curve models ignore platform motion impacts; conventional recurrent neural networks and vanilla Transformers are incompetent in depicting cross-dimensional variable correlations, while pure data-driven models easily violate physical principles under sparse working conditions. This paper thereby proposes a floating wind turbine power prediction method combining physical prior knowledge and Crossformer network. Wind speed is corrected via platform pitch angular velocity to reflect actual rotor inflow. The theoretical wind-power curve constructed by PCHIP serves as physical constraints during model training. The Crossformer architecture is employed to extract long-term temporal dependencies and coupling characteristics of operational parameters and platform attitudes. A hybrid training framework with dual loss functions and dynamic weight adjustment is established. Experimental results show that the PI-Crossformer achieves MAPE of 3.06%, MAE of 73.67 kW, RMSE of 135.01 kW and R2 of 0.9968 in one-hour multi-step prediction, which balances forecasting accuracy, physical rationality and multi-step prediction stability.

       

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