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    融合时滞特征与集成学习的燃煤锅炉NOx排放预测

    NOx Emission Prediction of Coal-fired Boilers via Time-delay Features and Ensemble Learning

    • 摘要: NOx排放浓度的精准预测对于优化燃烧过程、提升能源利用效率以及减少环境污染具有重要意义。提出一种融合变量时滞特征的燃煤锅炉出口NOx排放浓度集成预测方法。首先,利用最大互信息系数识别各影响变量与NOx浓度之间的时间延迟关系,重构建模数据集。随后,基于重构数据集应用LightGBM回归模型进行特征筛选,并结合Pearson相关系数剔除冗余信息,保留关键变量。在此基础上,构建了一种集成学习框架,选用卷积神经网络、双向长短期记忆网络及极端梯度提升模型作为基学习器,以极限学习机作为元学习器,并引入开普勒优化算法对模型超参数进行优化。基于河北省某燃煤电厂的实际运行数据进行实验验证。结果表明:所提方法有效提升了预测精度,以体积分数计平均绝对误差为0.38×10-6,均方根误差为0.75×10-6,展现出良好的稳健性与实用性。该模型能够有效提升NOx浓度预测性能,为燃烧过程的优化控制与排放监测提供了理论支撑和技术保障。

       

      Abstract: Accurate prediction of NOx emission concentration is of great significance for optimizing combustion processes, enhancing energy utilization efficiency, and mitigating environmental pollution. An integrated prediction method for NOx emission concentration at the outlet of coal-fired boilers by incorporating variable time delay characteristics was proposed. Firstly, the maximum mutual information coefficient was used to identify the time-delay relationships between influencing variables and NOx concentration, which enabled the reconstruction of the modeling dataset. Then, based on the reconstructed dataset, the LightGBM regression model was employed for feature selection, and redundant information was removed using the Pearson correlation coefficient to retain only the key variables. On this basis, an ensemble learning framework was established, in which convolutional neural networks, bidirectional long short-term memory networks, and extreme gradient boosting were adopted as base learners, while an extreme learning machine served as the meta-learner. The Kepler optimization algorithm was further introduced to optimize model hyperparameters. Experimental validation was conducted by using real operational data from a coal-fired power plant in Hebei Province. Results show that the proposed method significantly enhances prediction accuracy, achieving a mean absolute error of 0.38×10-6, and a root mean square error of 0.75×10-6 in terms of volume fraction, demonstrating strong robustness and practical applicability. The model effectively improves the prediction performance of NOx concentration, and provides solid theoretical support and reliable technical assurance for combustion process optimization control and emission monitoring.

       

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