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    基于多通道特征提取与深度交互融合网络的IES多元负荷短期预测

    Short-term Multi-load Forecasting of IES Based on Multi-channel Feature Extraction and Deep Interaction Fusion Network

    • 摘要: 针对综合能源系统中多能源复杂耦合关系及多变量时序的非平稳性与依赖性,提出一种基于多通道特征提取与深度交互融合的多任务学习模型。首先,结合最大互信息系数(MIC)和自相关函数(ACF)分析负荷特性并筛选关键输入特征;其次,采用多通道门控时间卷积网络(MGTCN)对各输入特征独立建模并动态提取有效信息,各通道输出通过交叉多头注意力模块实现深度交互,显式挖掘多源特征间的关联信息;然后,引入自适应路由融合(ARF)模块对各负荷与其交互信息进行全局语义建模与高效融合,接着由双向长短期记忆网络(BiLSTM)进一步捕捉融合特征的长短期时序依赖;最后,在多任务学习框架下共享负荷间耦合信息,并通过优化损失函数实现任务间平衡训练,提升预测模型的整体性能。算例分析表明:所提方法在多元负荷短期预测中具有更高的预测精度。

       

      Abstract: To address the complex multi-energy coupling relationships, as well as the non-stationarity and dependency of multivariate time series in integrated energy systems, a multi-task learning model based on multi-channel feature extraction and deep interactive fusion was proposed. First, the maximal information coefficient (MIC) and autocorrelation function (ACF) were combined to analyze load characteristics and select key input features. Second, a multi-channel gated temporal convolutional network (MGTCN) was employed to independently model each input feature and dynamically extract effective information. The outputs of each channel achieved deep interaction through a cross multi-head attention module, explicitly mining the correlation information among multi-source features. Then, an adaptive routing fusion (ARF) module was introduced to conduct global semantic modeling and efficient fusion for each load and its interactive information, followed by a bidirectional long short-term memory (BiLSTM) network to further capture the long- and short-term temporal dependencies of the fused features. Finally, under the multi-task learning framework, the coupling information among loads was shared, and balanced training across tasks was achieved by optimizing the loss function, thereby enhancing the overall performance of the prediction model. Case analysis demonstrates that the proposed method achieves higher prediction accuracy in short-term multi-load forecasting.

       

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