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    基于双视点云团位置和运动信息的光伏超短期功率预测

    Photovoltaic Ultra-short-term Power Prediction Based on Dual-view Point Cloud Cluster Position and Motion Information

    • 摘要: 光伏电站的功率波动性对电网安全稳定运行提出了挑战。尤其在多云天气下,云团的位置和运动情况会导致光伏出力的剧烈波动。为提高超短期功率预测的精度,提出了一种融合双视点云团位置和运动信息的混合预测框架。首先,基于地基云图的分割技术、云运动评估技术和双视点几何反演技术提取云团的高度、速度、方向及云量特征;其次,结合气象与历史功率,通过主成分分析降维和融合多源特征;最后,采用长短期记忆(LSTM)、Informer、门控循环单元(GRU)和卷积神经网络(CNN)共4种子模型并行预测,并设计投票集成策略优化输出。实验结果表明:融入云团信息使预测归一化均方根误差(RNRMSE)降低至0.117 9,较传统方法提升4.3%;异构模型融合进一步优化性能,其精度优于单一模型,提升率为0.8%~5.6%。

       

      Abstract: Power fluctuations of photovoltaic (PV) plants present challenges to the safe and stable operation of power grids. Particularly under cloudy conditions, the position and movement of cloud clusters can cause drastic fluctuations in PV power output. To improve the accuracy of ultra-short-term power prediction, a hybrid prediction framework integrating dual-view point cloud cluster position and motion information was proposed. First, cloud cluster features— including height, velocity, direction and cloud cover— were extracted using ground-based cloud image segmentation, cloud motion estimation, and dual-view point geometric inversion technologies. Next, meteorological and historical power data were incorporated, with principal component analysis applied for dimensionality reduction and multi-source feature fusion. Finally, four sub-models—long and short term memory (LSTM), Informer, gated recurrent unit (GRU), and convolutional neural network (CNN)—were employed for parallel prediction, and a voting ensemble strategy was designed to optimize the output. Experimental results demonstrate that incorporating cloud cluster information reduces the prediction normalized root mean square error (RNRMSE) to 0.117 9, an improvement of 4.3% over traditional methods. Heterogeneous model fusion further enhances performance, with accuracy surpassing that of any single model by 0.8%-5.6%.

       

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