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    基于模态分解和LSTM-IDBO-GRU的光伏功率预测研究

    Research on Photovoltaic Power Prediction Based on Mode Decomposition and LSTM-IDBO-GRU

    • 摘要: 为提高光伏发电功率的预测精度,提出了一种基于霜冰优化算法(RIME)、变分模态分解(VMD)、长短期记忆网络(LSTM)和改进蜣螂优化算法(IDBO)优化门控循环单元(GRU)的光伏功率组合预测模型。该方法首先以最小包络熵作为优化算法的适应度函数,使用RIME对VMD进行优化,寻找本征模态函数(IMF)分量的个数和惩罚因子的最优参数组合。其次,根据过零率将这些分量划分为低频和高频,低频分量使用LSTM模型进行预测,针对高频分量预测精度无法保证的问题,采用多种策略对传统的蜣螂优化算法进行改进,并利用IDBO-GRU模型对高频分量进行预测。最后,将预测结果重构得到光伏发电功率的最终结果。对比实验结果表明:相对于VMD-LSTM-GRU、RIME-VMD-LSTM-GRU和RIME-VMD-LSTM-蜣螂优化算法(DBO)-GRU模型,所提组合模型优于其他模型,各误差评价指标最小,具有更高的预测精度。

       

      Abstract: In order to improve the prediction accuracy of photovoltaic power generation, a combined prediction model based on the rime optimization algorithm (RIME), variational mode decomposition (VMD), long short-term memory network (LSTM), and improved dung beetle optimization algorithm (IDBO) for optimizing gated recurrent unit (GRU) was proposed. Firstly, the minimum envelope entropy was employed as the fitness function of the optimization algorithm, and RIME was applied to optimize VMD to find the optimal parameter combinations for the number of intrinsic mode functions (IMF) components and the penalty factors. Secondly, these components were classified into low-frequency and high-frequency based on the zero-crossing rate, and LSTM model was used to predict low frequency components. To solve the problem that the prediction accuracy of high frequency components cannot be guaranteed, various strategies were employed to improve the traditional dung beetle optimization algorithm, and an IDBO-GRU model was utilized to predict high-frequency components. Finally, the predicted results were reconstructed to obtain the final photovoltaic power result. Comparative experimental results indicate that the proposed combined model outperforms the other models, including VMD-LSTM-GRU, RIME-VMD-LSTM-GRU, and RIME-VMD-LSTM-dung beetle optimization algorithm (DBO)-GRU, with the smallest error evaluation indexes and higher prediction accuracy.

       

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