考虑风光出力不确定性的风光火储短期优化调度策略研究
Research on Short-term Optimal Scheduling Strategy of Wind-PV- Thermal-BESS Considering Wind-PV Uncertainty
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摘要: 随着新能源大规模并网需求日益增长,风电与光伏出力的波动性与不确定性给电力系统运行带来严峻挑战。针对现有多能互补调度策略中动态性不足、场景适应性差的问题,提出了一种基于滚动权重更新的风光火储短期优化调度策略。通过构建多场景加权目标函数,结合动态权重调整机制,实现火电运行成本最小化与风光消纳最大化的协同优化。基于风光火储能源基地的仿真结果表明:所提策略在风光火储系统优化调度时兼顾了经济性与稳定性,在风光正常、大发及小发出力场景下,弃风成本降低1.16%~75.52%,系统运行总成本降低0.02%~2.78%。Abstract: With the increasing integration of renewable energy into power systems, the volatility and uncertainty of wind and photovoltaic (Wind-PV) outputs pose significant challenges to power system operation. To address the problems of insufficient dynamic adaptability and scenario responsiveness in existing multi-energy complementary scheduling strategies, a short-term optimal scheduling strategy for wind-photovoltaic-thermal-battery energy storage system (Wind-PV-Thermal-BESS) based on rolling weight updates was proposed. By constructing a multi-scenario weighted objective function and incorporating a dynamic weight adjustment mechanism, the model achieves coordinated optimization of minimizing thermal power generation costs and maximizing Wind-PV energy utilization. Simulation results based on an actual energy base show that the proposed strategy takes into account both economy and stability in the optimal scheduling of Wind-PV-Thermal-BESS. Under the normal output, high-output and low-output Wind-PV scenarios, the wind curtailment costs and the total system operating costs are decreased by 1.16%-75.52% and 0.02%-2.78% respectively.
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