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    多分支时间序列预测与迁移学习相结合的齿轮箱状态监测

    Monitoring for Gearbox Condition Based on Multi-branch Time Series Prediction and Transfer Learning

    • 摘要: 为了提高利用监控和数据采集(supervisory control and data acquisition,SCADA)多变量长时间序列预测齿轮箱油温的精度,解决不同风电机组因处不同运行环境导致的数据分布不一致的问题,提出了一种基于多分支时间序列预测与迁移学习相结合的齿轮箱状态监测方法。首先,利用极致梯度提升(extreme gradient boosting,XGBoost)算法筛选输入参数组成原始序列,对其进行分解得到季节与趋势序列。其次,提出季节、趋势序列特征提取模块获取季节及趋势特征的序列,将其与经过Informer模型处理后的特征序列进行融合后输入进多层感知机映射成最终的预测值,以构建提出的多分支时间序列预测网络(multi-branch time series prediction network,MBFN)。最后,利用迁移学习并结合一分类向量支持机(one-class support vector machine,OCSVM)模型及滑动窗口构建齿轮箱的健康指数,完成齿轮箱状态监测。实验结果表明,所提出模型的MBFN显著提高了油温预测精度,优于常规时间序列预测模型,所使用的迁移策略能以较少数据适应不同数据的分布,进而实现对齿轮箱的状态监测,并且所提出的模型可以提前18.9 d发出齿轮箱故障预警。

       

      Abstract: In order to improve the accuracy of predicting gearbox oil temperature by using supervisory control and data acquisition (SCADA) with multivariate long time series, and solve the problem of inconsistent data distribution caused by different wind power generation units under different operating environments, a method for gearbox condition monitoring was proposed based on multi-branch time series prediction and transfer learning. Firstly, the original sequence was formed by filtering input parameters with extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost) algorithm, so as to obtain the seasonal and trend sequence through decomposing. Secondly, the feature extraction module of seasonal and trend sequence was proposed to obtain the feature of seasonal and trend sequence, which was fused with the feature sequence processed by Informer model and then input into the multi-layer perceptron to map into the final prediction value, so as to construct the proposed multi-branch time series prediction network (MBFN). Finally, the health index of gearbox was constructed by using transfer learning combined with one-class support vector machine (OCSVM) model and sliding window, so as to complete the condition monitoring of gearbox. Experimental results show that the MBFN from proposed model has significantly improved the prediction accuracy of oil temperature, which is better than the conventional time series prediction model. Meanwhile, the adopted migration strategy can adapt to the distribution of different data with less data, so as to realize the condition monitoring of gearbox, while the proposed model can issue the gearbox fault warning with 18.9 days in advance.

       

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