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    CCUS应用下660 MW燃煤电站度电成本与电力供应成本分析

    Analysis of Levelized Cost of Energy and Cost of Electricity Supply for 660 MW Coal-fired Power Station Under CCUS Application

    • 摘要: 为研究燃煤机组进行碳的捕获、利用与封存(CCUS)改造后度电成本与电力供应成本的变化情况,综合当前电-碳双市场发展趋势总结分析出燃煤机组CCUS 应用的成本、收益情况并建立仿真模型,同时对配备CCUS的660 MW 燃煤电站进行度电成本与电力供应成本的折算分析,最后以碳捕集成本、碳交易价格为变量进行敏感性分析。结果表明:火电机组经CCUS 改造后,预测度电成本将于2034—2035 年下降至电网区域煤电交易基准价向上浮动20%的范畴,于2039年后实现改造前后度电成本变化率为负数,即改造后度电成本低于改造前度电成本的目标,此外尽管碳捕集成本、碳交易价格将对度电成本和电力供应成本产生不同程度的影响,但在两者的耦合作用下,火电机组CCUS改造项目仍具有良好的经济性效果。

       

      Abstract: In order to study the changes in levelized cost of energy and cost of electricity supply after the carbon capture, utilization and storage (CCUS) retrofit of a coal-fired power station, the current development trend of the electricity-carbon market was summarized and analyzed, and a simulation model was built to show the cost and benefit of CCUS application for 660 MW coal-fired power station. A sensitivity analysis was carried out using the cost of carbon capture cost and carbon trading price as variables. Results show that the predicted levelized cost of energy of the thermal power units after CCUS retrofit will fall to the range of 20% upward fluctuation of the regional coal trading benchmark price between 2034 and 2035. After 2039, the change rate of levelized cost of energy before and after the transformation will be negative, which means that the levelized cost of energy after transformation will be lower than the target of levelized cost of energy before transformation. In addition, although the carbon capture cost and carbon trading price will have more or less impacts on levelized cost of energy and power supply cost, the coupling effect of carbon capture cost and carbon trading price still has good economic results in the future for the CCUS retrofit projects of the thermal power units.

       

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